- Preparations before 2022 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections
- Competition to increase trust among the deprived sections of the society engaged in political parties
- The reach that the BJP has made in the last few years has been strengthened.
- Congress is insisting on regaining its traditional vote
With the assembly elections to be held in 5 states in a few months, along with the 2024 general elections, the race to increase confidence among the deprived sections of the society is already visible. While the Narendra Modi-led BJP is trying to consolidate its reach among them, the Congress is also making renewed efforts to regain its oldest and traditional vote. The effect of this political tussle is also visible on the ground. With this intention, the central government decided to celebrate the birth anniversary of Birsa Munda on November 15 as Tribal Pride Day. Under this, the government is organizing programs from November 15 to 22 about the glorious history and culture of tribal communities. In this sequence, Narendra Modi also participated in a program in Madhya Pradesh. At the same time, Congress tried to give a big message among the Dalits by making Charanjit Singh Channi the CM in Punjab.
Experiments to create new vote banks successful
Before 2014, the biggest challenge before the BJP was to increase its social expansion. But under the leadership of Narendra Modi, BJP broke this myth and increased its base among Dalits and Adivasis much more than before. Its first major impact was seen in the 2014 general election. The BJP then won 67 of the 131 reserved seats. In the 2019 general election, the party further improved its performance by increasing it to 10 seats and securing 77 seats.
As far as the Dalit vote is concerned, its impact was most visible in Uttar Pradesh. In the state, especially among non-Jatav Dalits, 60 per cent voted for the BJP. That happened when there was an alliance between Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav in the state. In this way, it can be said that both these sections have contributed a lot behind the recent big electoral successes of BJP, but to get these votes, BJP has made different strategies at every level. PM Modi has done many successful experiments to create new vote banks in his political journey so far.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi started creating a new social vote bank in Gujarat from the neo-middle class (neo-middle class). He paid attention to the poor and middle class population living in small towns. In the midst of economic development, it has emerged as a very large section, which was not targeted by any political party till then. Then after becoming PM, Modi created a new base for himself with government schemes like Ujjwala, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. This made a big dent among the sections of the BJP, thanks to which the Congress continued to rule the country for more than four decades. The efforts of the BJP led by PM Modi to reach out to these deprived societies also got the support of the RSS. Through the social harmony platform, he has made a good inroads among the Dalits.
ABP Opinion Poll: BJP government may come again in UP
Now the big concern before the BJP is to maintain this vote bank. There are many reasons behind this concern. First, this class has been most affected by inflation and other problems. Although the government has tried to help it with welfare schemes, the party knows that to maintain access to them, direct communication will have to be done better. Second, even though these communities got more votes in the Lok Sabha elections, there is a trend of decreasing in the state elections. Madhya Pradesh has the largest tribal population in the entire country, where the Congress was largely successful in getting their vote back from the BJP in the 2018 assembly elections. Apart from this, even from Jharkhand, West Bengal to Bihar, the vote of Dalits also went down to the BJP as compared to the Lok Sabha.
Opposition’s focus on Dalit, Adivasi
On the other hand, the Congress-led opposition is seeing a political opportunity to re-establish penetration between these two deprived societies, for which it is ready to play every political bet. After making Dalit the CM for the first time in Punjab, the Congress is now looking aggressive towards giving representation to the Dalits. According to sources, Ashok Gehlot may also give more representation to Dalits in his newly proposed cabinet in Rajasthan. Similarly, a strategy has been made to promote the leadership of Dalits in other states as well. Even on the reserved seats, the Congress has started making a different strategy. From the coming assembly elections to the Lok Sabha elections, the party is following the policy of increasing the dominance of this vote bank again. According to party sources, there is a clear message from the top leadership that leaders belonging to these community should get full participation.
Whose government is being made by this survey, which came before the UP elections?
Apart from Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand is also one such state where the Congress and its ally JMM failed to oust the BJP from power last year by garnering a large number of tribal votes. After that, Hemant Soren is trying to strengthen his strength among the tribal population in Jharkhand and beyond with the help of Sarna Dharma Code. After passing the Sarna Code, a separate religious code will come legally for them. They are taking this issue among the tribals across the country. The other party has also been exercising on this front for some time, but their efforts are being successful in reducing the growing support base among them, a small glimpse of whether the assembly elections in five states are going to be held in the next few months. will be seen during